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The US EPA Retail and
Industrial/Commercial Refueling Facility Market Forecast : Changes in the Retail/Commercial Fleet Market
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Introduction and Research Overview
Eleven
years ago, Federal regulations were enacted to protect our nation’s drinking
water supplies from petroleum releases at locations where fuel is stored.
These regulations sharply increased the liability and cost of owning and
operating a vehicle refueling facility.
During the same period, crude oil prices began to fall.
By the end of the 1990’s, margin pressure on downstream operations
forced industry consolidation. Joint
ventures between Shell-Texaco, Marathon-Ashland, Ultramar Diamond Shamrock-Total
Petroleum, Tosco-Unocal, BP-Amoco, and Exxon-Mobil changed the structure of the
retail gasoline service station market.
The industrial and commercial (I/C) markets have also been rationalized.
During the 1990’s over half of all underground storage tanks (USTs) in
the I/C market had been taken out of service.
Some owners upgraded their refueling facilities to comply with the strict
new regulations. Others chose to
shut down their facilities and refuel off-site at a retail or cardlock facility,
or to contract with a mobile refueling service.
In 1998, owners were active in bringing their refueling facilities into
compliance prior to the December EPA deadline.
While activity has continued into 1999, there are signs that compliance
driven demand is waning.
Today, uncertainty surrounds the future of the gasoline service station market.
There is a replacement cycle associated with all capital equipment
markets. A critical issue for
executives serving the petroleum equipment market is: “How has the normal
replacement cycle for petroleum equipment been dampened by compliance driven
expenditures during the 1990’s?”
This syndicated study grew out of a common need among our clients to understand
the post-compliance market drivers and to measure their impact on future sales.
One of the primary missions of the project was to determine the
equipment and services that will be most in demand at the start of the
millennium. New products and
legislation, such as alternatively fueled vehicles and new Stage II areas, will
have an affect on the petroleum equipment market and what the impact of developmental products and regulations
are. Building on a decade of
petroleum industry research, Havill Consultants is uniquely qualified to conduct
this important new study and discover new possible business opportunities.
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Specifically, this research measures structural
changes in the overall petroleum equipment market resulting from consolidation
among major buyers and the passing of EPA deadlines. Subscribers will gain valuable insight into evolving
technologies and industry trends. Overall,
the primary objectives of the report are to:
- Characterize the US petroleum equipment market in terms of the number and types of refueling facilities within both the retail and industrial/commercial markets.
- Identify the level of compliance with the EPA regulations and forecast the number of facilities that are currently in compliance, will be upgrading to become compliant, and will be closing. Also, identify the number of new facilities to be built through 2005.
- Characterize the current and future underground storage tank and piping system population in terms of:
- The number of tanks at facilities that are upgrading, closing, and at new facilities.
- The net future demand for USTs and piping systems by material and construction.
- The net future demand for USTs and piping systems by region.
- Characterize the current and future market for tank
& line detection in terms of:
- The level of compliance with EPA regulations,
- The net future demand for leak detection systems by type and region.
- Identify the future demand for dispensers and nozzles at refueling facilities, as well as overfill prevention, spill containment, breakaways, shear valves, and manholes.
- Forecast the future demand for POS and fuel management systems, as well as the related features that are believed to be most desirable to facility owners.
- Identify current and future legislation pertaining to new Stage II requirements and locations, as well as, alternative fuel and vehicle regulations.
- Identify the current and future trends in fast food, co-branding, and car/truck washes at retail facilities.
- Characterize new market opportunities emerging as a result of major oil mergers and hypermarket retailing.
- Define unique segments of the US commercial fleet population in terms of current vehicle demographics, including number and type of vehicles, ownership, travel characteristics, location, and fuel consumption.
- Develop conclusions and recommendations to the most likely market scenarios based upon varying levels of compliance, facility construction and upgrade, and the possibility of additional legislation.
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Havill & Company has a proven track record of
developing accurate industry forecasts for both syndicated and proprietary
research over the past decade.
Havill Consultants conducted syndicated studies of the retail and
industrial/commercial (I/C) gasoline service station markets in 1990 and 1993.
Due to the complexity of the I/C markets, our 1995 study drilled down on
the I/C market’s nine major business segments and facility owners.
Our 1998 study was devoted to the retail refueling market and compliance
with the 1998 EPA regulations regarding USTs and related equipment.
In late 1999, Havill Consultants will publish yet another study devoted
to changes in the I/C refueling markets, again using diverse business segments
to characterize the marketplace.
This newest study, to be published in mid-2000, once again combines the
retail and I/C markets, building upon the research conducted throughout the 1990’s.
From our experience, the most reliable information source for predicting future
technology trends and purchasing patterns comes from the end-users themselves.
For this study, in-depth interviews in the retail market will be
conducted with executives and engineers at major oil companies, independent
jobber organizations, dealers, and convenience store companies.
In the I/C market, interviews will be conducted with facility owners from
several different business segments in order to best represent the market.
Our
research follows a proven methodology.
All questionnaires will be pre-tested by conducting interviews, analyzing
the results, making any necessary revisions, and then continuing the cycle until
all of the necessary refinements had been made.
Charter subscribers will have the opportunity to review the final
research questionnaire and suggest revisions so long as the changes do not
substantially change the scope of the research.
This study will employ a stratified random sample of retail and private
refueling facility owners.
At a minimum, 750 interviews will be completed.
As
interviews are completed, they will be entered into the Survey
System®, our full-featured market research software program.
Market survey data from each questionnaire will be computer tabulated and
projected to the population.
Equipment statistics will be based on both primary and secondary
research. Statistical
procedures will be applied to establish the significance of the research
findings.
Havill
& Company will personally manage all aspects of the project.
Each of the professionals assigned to this project has extensive
petroleum marketing research experience.
They will share responsibility for the total project including secondary
research, questionnaire design, interviewing, analysis, and writing the final
report. All
study findings will be fully documented in a report of approximately 300 to 400
pages. Where
appropriate, graphs will be used to visually support the analysis.
Charter
subscribers to the study may request special analysis of specific questions that
were included in the research.
Subscribers may also suggest special “proprietary” research and
analysis as long as their suggestions are submitted prior to the primary
research phase, and do not materially increase the scope and subsequent cost of
the research. Approximately
one month after the delivery of the final report, Havill Consultants will be
available to meet with individual subscribers to discuss issues arising from the
study.
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The final report will be based on the outline shown below.
Each chapter will discuss a particular topic.
An executive summary will provide an overview and summary of each topic.
Note: The specific final report outline is subject to change based on survey results. This outline is the basis for the intended final deliverable.
I.
Retail
Refueling Infrastructure
A. Identify the US Vehicle Population
B.
Identify the US Fuel Consumption
C.
Quantify the Refueling Facility Population
D.
Segment the Facility Population by Owner Type
E. Breakout the Facility Population by Type
and Format
II.
Commercial Refueling
Infrastructure
A.
Identify Characteristics of On-Site Refueling in terms of UST, AST, and
Mobile methods
B. Determine fuel consumption by Off-Site Refueling Methods such as Retail, Truck Stops, and Cardlock
facilities
C.
Identify Methods of Fleet Vehicle Maintenance Including Off-Site and
Third-Party
III.
Regulatory Compliance
A.
Determine Compliance with EPA Regulations by Segment
B.
Identify the Number of Retail and I/C Facilities Upgrading and Closing
C.
Forecast the Number of New Facilities to be Built
D.
Forecast Compliance with EPA Regulations
IV.
Underground Storage Tanks
A.
Identify the Number of USTs Upgrading, Closing, and at New Facilities
B.
Forecast Net Demand by Material
C.
Forecast Net Demand by Construction
D.
Forecast Net Demand by Region
V.
Piping Systems
A.
Identify the Number of Piping Systems Upgrading, Closing, and at New
Facilities
B.
Forecast Net Demand by Material
C. Forecast
Net Demand by Construction
D.
Forecast Net Demand by Region
VI.
Tank & Line Leak Detection
A.
Identify Compliance by Facility and Segment
B.
Forecast Net Demand for Tank and Line Leak Detection Systems
VII.
Dispensers
A.
Forecast Net Demand by Dispenser Type
B. Forecast
Net Demand by Region
C.
Identify Life Cycle and Turnover
D.
Identify Future Number of Hoses and Meters by Dispenser Type
VIII.
Nozzles
A.
Forecast Net Demand by Nozzle Type
B. Forecast
Net Demand by Region
C. Identify Life Cycle and Turnover
IX.
POS Systems
A.
Forecast Demand for POS & Fuel Management Systems
B.
Identify Desired Features for POS Systems and Fuel Management Systems
C. Identify Breakout between PC Based and Proprietary Systems
X.
Forecasted Changes in Refueling
Infrastructure
A.
Forecast the US Vehicle Population
B.
Forecast the US Fuel Consumption
C. Forecast the Refueling Facility Population
D.
Segment the Forecasted Facility Population by Owner Type and Facility
Format
E. Identify
New Regulations affecting Stage II facilities
F.
Determine the Impact of Fuel Cell, Alternative Fuels, and Alternatively
Fueled Vehicles
XI.
Refueling Market Dynamics
A. Discuss the Competitive Effects of Hypermarket Gasoline Retailing on Petroleum Marketers and the
Opportunity for New Petroleum Equipment Customers
B.
Identify Future Commercial On-Site use of UST/AST/Mobile/Cardlock
Refueling Methods
C. Discuss
the Shift from Regulatory Driven Demand to Normal Cyclical Demand
D. Identify
and Discuss Changes in Petroleum Equipment Budgets after 1998
E.
Identify and Discuss Budgets Available for Technological Improvements
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Retail & I/C Refueling Market Project Team
Havill
& Company consultants routinely conduct both syndicated and proprietary
studies of the petroleum market. Our
research studies have covered the full gamut of refueling markets and equipment.
Specifically, we have conducted studies of the petroleum markets in the
United States, Canada, Latin America, and Europe to characterize facilities,
environmental regulations and technology trends.
From this research, we have developed extensive databases of contractors,
distributors, and petroleum marketers and commercial fleet owners.
Past research studies include:
- The Commercial Fleet Market Forecast: 1999-2001
Questions??? --Contact Us